Despite still being in the competition, their prospects are far from rosy. To avoid the embarrassment of missing the quarter-finals for the first time, they’ll need a fair bit of luck, some favorable outcomes in other matches, and a substantial improvement in their own performance.
The latter is the most daunting challenge, given their current form, but it’s not entirely unattainable. Even so, getting all the puzzle pieces to fall into place is, well, quite challenging.
Some parts of the rugby media have been less than forthright about the Wallabies’ tough predicament. For instance:
“Winning a match might put Australia in a good position to advance to the quarter-finals, but a loss could be disastrous for their chances.”
In reality, a loss would be game over, with no room for “could.” That is, unless you believe that Georgia will defeat Wales, which is highly unlikely.
Even simply “winning” a match doesn’t guarantee a strong position for Australia. In fact, a close victory by less than seven points doesn’t bode well for their quarter-final hopes. Only a convincing win, with Australia scoring four tries against Wales and a margin of more than six points, can be considered as putting them in a “strong position.” Even then, it would still depend on other matches going their way.
The Rugby World Cup’s regulations, with bonus points and tied results, make Fiji’s performance crucial for Australia’s playoff chances. If Fiji manages to secure maximum points in their remaining games against Portugal and Georgia, they should top the pool and earn a quarter-final berth against Argentina.
If Australia beats Wales but neither team earns a bonus point (Wales loses by more than six points, and Australia doesn’t score four tries), both teams would have ten points with one game left: Australia against Portugal and Wales against Georgia.
Various “ifs” and “buts” come into play. If one team scores a bonus point while winning and the other doesn’t, the team with the bonus point faces England in the quarters. If both teams secure or miss bonus points, they end up tied with either 14 or 15 points, and in this case, Wales would be eliminated, allowing the Wallabies to advance.
There are other potential scenarios, like Fiji picking up only one bonus point, which could lead to a three-way tie. In such cases, the pool winner would be decided by their for-and-against points, and second place by the result of the other teams’ pool match.
This entire process is akin to hitting a trifecta in horse racing – not an easy task.
It’s clear that Eddie Jones’ early acknowledgment that this trip to France was about building for the 2027 World Cup was a wise move. As for Rugby Australia Chairman Hamish McLennan, what explanations he might offer remain uncertain. The decision to replace Dave Rennie with Jones, and the ensuing outcomes, fall under his purview.
Ultimately, rugby fans play and support the sport to experience the excitement, enjoy the game, and perhaps assign blame to officials and management later.
Despite the disappointment of watching the Wallabies perform poorly and commit their usual share of mistakes, it was a thrill to witness Fiji’s impressive and expansive play, as they showcased the potential they’ve held for a long time. It was a captivating match to the very end.
That’s what makes rugby unique – the spirit of the game encourages us to relish watching the opposition play well.
Let’s look ahead to Monday and hope for a performance from the Wallabies that includes four tries against Wales
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