Phillies’ Trade Deadline Focus Should Shift to the Outfield, Not the Bullpen…

For much of the season, the Phillies’ bullpen was viewed as a liability—a ticking time bomb waiting to derail a promising campaign. But as we approach the trade deadline, that narrative has shifted. Despite Jose Alvarado’s recent suspension casting a temporary shadow over the relief corps, the bullpen has been quietly impressive, even if the numbers don’t all agree on just how impressive.

Depending on which stat you trust most, you can frame the bullpen in almost any light. Fangraphs ranks them sixth in fWAR among all MLB relief groups (2.0 fWAR), suggesting a reliable, productive unit. Switch over to ERA, and their near-5.00 mark dumps them into the league’s lower tier. Flip again to FIP (3.68), and they’re back among the top ten. It’s statistical whiplash—and proof of just how inconsistent and context-dependent bullpen evaluation can be.

What’s undeniable, however, is that the Phillies’ relievers have found a groove lately. Since April 21, their collective ERA is 3.36, their FIP an impressive 2.97, and they’re striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings. That performance has been worth 1.8 fWAR—nearly their full-season total in just over a month. Even with Alvarado sidelined, the group has shown enough promise that patching the hole internally—through call-ups or bullpen reshuffling—may be the most practical short-term move.

Which is exactly why the Phillies should be setting their sights elsewhere as the trade deadline approaches. Namely, the outfield.

Left and center field have been offensive black holes this season. In left, Phillies hitters have collectively posted a .704 OPS—18th in MLB. Center field has been even worse, ranking 26th with a .612 OPS. That simply isn’t good enough for a team with postseason aspirations, especially when the goal is to deepen the lineup and not just tread water until October.

The platoon approach, intended to mitigate these weaknesses, hasn’t yielded the expected advantages. Max Kepler, Brandon Marsh, and Johan Rojas have all seen time in these roles, but only Rojas has shown anything resembling reliable production in his assigned matchups:

• Kepler vs. RHP: .220/.313/.373 (4 HR, 11 RBI in 134 PA)

• Marsh vs. RHP: .211/.292/.333 (1 HR, 8 RBI in 65 PA)

• Rojas vs. LHP: .281/.324/.406 (1 HR, 5 RBI in 35 PA)

If this is the best version of a platoon, the Phillies may want to abandon the strategy altogether. The problem could be advanced scouting catching up to the hitters—or simply that the players in these roles aren’t producing. Either way, running out replacement-level production in two-thirds of the outfield is a recipe for postseason disappointment.

That’s why the team’s biggest need at the deadline isn’t another reliever—it’s a legitimate bat in either left or center field. Internal solutions are slim, and the free agent or trade market for outfielders is currently thin, but it’s easier to replace bullpen innings with a mix of arms than it is to find steady offensive output from within the system.

The hope is that, as more teams fall out of contention, trade options will open up. Whether it’s a rental or a controllable player, the Phillies need to prioritize adding production to their outfield mix. Bullpen help may always be welcome, but right now, it’s not the top priority.

For much of the season, the Phillies’ bullpen was viewed as a liability—a ticking time bomb waiting to derail a promising campaign. But as we approach the trade deadline, that narrative has shifted. Despite Jose Alvarado’s recent suspension casting a temporary shadow over the relief corps, the bullpen has been quietly impressive, even if the numbers don’t all agree on just how impressive.

Depending on which stat you trust most, you can frame the bullpen in almost any light. Fangraphs ranks them sixth in fWAR among all MLB relief groups (2.0 fWAR), suggesting a reliable, productive unit. Switch over to ERA, and their near-5.00 mark dumps them into the league’s lower tier. Flip again to FIP (3.68), and they’re back among the top ten. It’s statistical whiplash—and proof of just how inconsistent and context-dependent bullpen evaluation can be.

What’s undeniable, however, is that the Phillies’ relievers have found a groove lately. Since April 21, their collective ERA is 3.36, their FIP an impressive 2.97, and they’re striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings. That performance has been worth 1.8 fWAR—nearly their full-season total in just over a month. Even with Alvarado sidelined, the group has shown enough promise that patching the hole internally—through call-ups or bullpen reshuffling—may be the most practical short-term move.

Which is exactly why the Phillies should be setting their sights elsewhere as the trade deadline approaches. Namely, the outfield.

Left and center field have been offensive black holes this season. In left, Phillies hitters have collectively posted a .704 OPS—18th in MLB. Center field has been even worse, ranking 26th with a .612 OPS. That simply isn’t good enough for a team with postseason aspirations, especially when the goal is to deepen the lineup and not just tread water until October.

The platoon approach, intended to mitigate these weaknesses, hasn’t yielded the expected advantages. Max Kepler, Brandon Marsh, and Johan Rojas have all seen time in these roles, but only Rojas has shown anything resembling reliable production in his assigned matchups:

• Kepler vs. RHP: .220/.313/.373 (4 HR, 11 RBI in 134 PA)

• Marsh vs. RHP: .211/.292/.333 (1 HR, 8 RBI in 65 PA)

• Rojas vs. LHP: .281/.324/.406 (1 HR, 5 RBI in 35 PA)

If this is the best version of a platoon, the Phillies may want to abandon the strategy altogether. The problem could be advanced scouting catching up to the hitters—or simply that the players in these roles aren’t producing. Either way, running out replacement-level production in two-thirds of the outfield is a recipe for postseason disappointment.

That’s why the team’s biggest need at the deadline isn’t another reliever—it’s a legitimate bat in either left or center field. Internal solutions are slim, and the free agent or trade market for outfielders is currently thin, but it’s easier to replace bullpen innings with a mix of arms than it is to find steady offensive output from within the system.

The hope is that, as more teams fall out of contention, trade options will open up. Whether it’s a rental or a controllable player, the Phillies need to prioritize adding production to their outfield mix. Bullpen help may always be welcome, but right now, it’s not the top priority.