Tampa Bay’s 5-on-5 performance currently ranks 29th in the league for goal percentage.
Despite starting a road trip with a convincing 8-2 victory over Carolina, the Lightning faced setbacks in back-to-back games against Colorado and Arizona, resulting in a combined 7-2 score against them.
Although the team has returned home with 25 points on the season, holding the final playoff position in the Eastern Conference, their 5-on-5 play has been a significant concern.
Despite positive elements, such as Andrei Vasilevskiy’s return from back surgery, Nikita Kucherov leading the league in scoring, and Brayden Point’s impressive start, the Lightning’s main challenge lies in lackluster 5-on-5 performance. Going into their upcoming home game against the Penguins, they have scored 12 fewer 5-on-5 goals than they have allowed, despite having 74 more shot attempts than their opponents in those situations.
While the Lightning’s power play has been a standout feature, with 25 goals tying them for the most in the league and a 32.5% power-play scoring rate ranking second, the recent 0-for-5 performance on the power play highlights the team’s dependence on it. When the power play isn’t effective, the struggles in 5-on-5 play become more evident.
The statistics reveal that the Lightning’s for/against goal percentage of 0.793 ranks 29th among the league’s 32 teams. A closer look at their loss to Arizona shows a different story than their defeat against Colorado. Against the Avalanche, they were vulnerable to odd-man rushes, while against the Coyotes, they dominated zone time and had a high number of shot attempts.
However, 25 shots blocked and 21 missed shots, particularly in 5-on-5 situations, diminish their shot attempt differential. Throughout the regular season, especially in 5-on-5 scenarios, the Lightning have faced challenges with shots being blocked, averaging 15.35 blocked shots per game, an increase from the previous season.
Teams are strategically defending against the Lightning by packing it in, allowing shots from the outside and closing off the middle in front of the net. This defensive approach is where the absence of players like Alex Killorn and Corey Perry, who excel in creating chaos in front of the net, is felt. The Lightning need both chaotic plays in front of the net and accurate perimeter shots, especially from defensemen, to improve their 5-on-5 performance.
While offensive stars Kucherov and Point have performed exceptionally, carrying a significant load, other key players like Steven Stamkos have struggled to contribute in 5-on-5 situations. The team has experimented with line combinations to boost Stamkos’s performance, but it remains a challenging fix.
Additionally, the Lightning acknowledge that early deficits have been a recurring issue, leading to a lack of pushback in 5-on-5 play. They attribute some deficits to unlucky bounces but recognize the need to create their own opportunities. Learning from their win over Carolina, where a deficit turned into a big lead with effective power-play goals, the Lightning aim to translate that urgency and killer instinct into their 5-on-5 performance. The key lies in replicating the defensive success of that game, limiting scoring chances and high-danger opportunities, allowing them to utilize their speed and skill effectively in the offensive zone.
In summary, the Lightning’s struggles in 5-on-5 play stem from various factors, including shot differentials, defensive strategies against them, and the need for contributions beyond their top offensive line. Addressing these issues will be crucial for the team to maintain a competitive edge throughout the season.
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